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When you’re trying to dig yourself out of an 0-3 hole, it seems like every game is the next Game of the Season.

 

This mindset suits Tony Sparano and his One Game at a Time mantra just fine, even when the margin for error is razor thin.

 

So is it fair to say that this upcoming contest versus the New England Patriots is really THE Game of the Season?

 

A win erases that horrible 0-3 start by getting them to .500, earns them a sparkling 4-0 divisional record, and sets the stage for them to take advantage of a much weaker second half of football, fertile ground for a playoff run.

 

A loss leaves the Dolphins floundering at 3-5, with a three game gap between themselves and the division leading Patriots, a tough deficit to overcome with just eight left to play and the wildcard picture looking very iffy.

 

So, yes, call it The Game of the Season, because their realistic postseason chances are pretty much on the line this Sunday (1pm ET, CBS).

 

Still, talking about winning and actually WINNING are two different things, as Jets coach Rex Ryan has yet to learn. Then there’s Sparano, who gets it just fine even though he isn’t one to yap about it. He won’t say it, but Sparano knows the Patriots are beatable. But to pull it off, his guys are going to need their best effort yet.

 

Here are my keys to earning this critical win.

 

1) Control Time of Possession: Job One for the Dolphins is to keep QB Tom Brady and his offense (3^rd in the NFL in yards per game) off the field. They must limit his opportunities and discourage a high scoring affair which the Dolphins would be hard pressed to win. To do this, the Dolphins must first dominate Time of Possession, and the best way to do that is to run the ball consistently at the Pats’ 15^th ranked run defense. This won’t be as easy as the stats suggest, especially with Bill Belichick having two weeks to prepare for the standard and Wildcat sets. The play of guards Justin Smiley and Donald Thomas, and center Jake Grove, will be critical in dealing with the myriad of games, stunts, dogs, sets, techniques, and blitzes that Belichick loves to serve up. Really, as the entire offensive line goes, so go the Dolphins in this one. Miami’s continued effectiveness with 3^rd down conversions (50%, #2 in the NFL) will also be vital in sustaining time consuming drives.

 

2) Finish long drives with points: There is perhaps no bigger sin in football than to go on a long, sustained drive only to come away with empty pockets. While the Dolphins have done a terrific job these past four games scoring 30 or better, not all of that output has been from the offense. In fact, since halftime of the Saints game, the offense has been pretty much AWOL. So it’s terribly important for the Dolphins that they sustain and finish time consuming drives with touchdowns. The good news is that the Dolphins are 6^th in the league in red zone efficiency (63%). This trend needs to continue on Sunday.

 

3) Pressure Brady: The games the Dolphins have won over the Patriots in recent years all had one thing in common: Brady (mostly) was consistently under duress. The Pats do a terrific job of keeping their MVP clean (8 sacks, tied for 4^th fewest), so the Dolphins will have to work hard to beat their pass protection schemes. Just remember that Brady and his receivers are pretty good at hot reads and beating the blitz. So when you consider that the Dolphins have two rookie starters at corner, have struggled at safety versus the deep pass, and have their best inside linebacker (Channing Crowder) at less than 100%, you realize that defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni will have to be extra careful with the risks he takes. The Dolphins have had very good success getting to Brady, often out of base sets by depending on their better players (e.g. Jason Taylor) to win match-ups. With a deeper stable of pass rushers this year, it will be interesting to see how Pasqualoni decides to play it.

 

4) Double Randy Moss: Last year the Dolphins tried to single cover Moss with disastrous results. Trying the same thing this year with a rookie corner is just asking for trouble. Moss is the best WR in the game, a great test for Vontae Davis and Sean Smith but not one to tempt too often. Davis and Smith cannot lose their technique against him even for a second because no one has the capability to make DBs pay for errors better (or faster) than Moss.

 

5) No turnovers: This would be a goal for any game, but especially important in this one. It all gets back to limiting Brady’s chances. The Pats are a very opportunistic team in this regard. Ruinous turnovers, like the ones WR Davone Bess was responsible for these past two weeks, will prove very costly.

 

6) Control Field Position: Again, a goal worthy of any game plan but vitally important in this one. Giving Brady a short field is like tossing meat to a hungry shark. Punter Brandon Fields and his cover team had a very good game against the Jets. They’ll need to do it again this week, especially after drives where the Dolphins go three-and-out. When the Pats kick to the Dolphins, returners Ted Ginn, Jr. (#1 in NFL in kick returns) and Bess, together with their blockers, need to give the offense good field position to work with.

 

7) Hit the Home Run: QB Chad Henne has had some opportunities to hit big plays but has either overthrown the ball, not seen the open man, or has been under pressure. One or two easy scores will make the job on Sunday much, much easier. Remember, the Dolphins have one of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL, surrendering a whopping 25.3 per game (25^th overall); Brady is likely to have success against them. So, to win this game, the Dolphins will probably need to register their fifth 30 point effort in a row (a new team record).