“Every now and then, somewhere,
someplace, sometime, you are going to have to plant your feet, stand firm and
make a point about WHO YOU ARE and what you believe in.” — Pat Riley
It has
been a remarkable and dizzying three weeks since interim head coach Dan
Campbell took custody of a dysfunctional group of players and transformed them
into hungry competitors. From 1-3 and an obituary to the land of hope via blow
out wins over the Titans and Texans, the Miami Dolphins have regained control
of their season in decisive fashion. They are becoming who we thought they
could be.
Dolfans
sense this transformation. Sitting in Section 139 during the dismantling of the
Texans, my ears were ringing and voices were hoarse from the bedlam in the
stands. Folks high-fived each other as the Dolphins landed haymaker after
haymaker in building a 41-0 halftime lead. As an Orange Bowl alumnus, I can
tell you that the new SunLife Stadium had an Orange Bowl type feel to it at
times, even when the rain came pouring down.
Yes, I
know: Tennessee and Houston aren’t exactly crème-de-la-crème. However, it must
be a ‘one-step, one-day-at-a-time’ approach for these Dolphins if they are
going to dig themselves out of the nasty hole they are in. Give them credit for
doing what good teams should do to lowly opponents and for getting themselves back
to .500 football.
At 3-3
they now have something to work with, and the time has come to find out just
how good are these Dolphins really are. That measuring stick is the New England
Patriots at Foxborough in a Thursday night tilt (8:20pm ET, NFLN).
Could
there be a stiffer test? Let’s face it: 31 teams would be underdogs to the Pats
in this game. Three weeks ago, this game had a doomsday feel to it. Now it
feels like a real opportunity for the hungry Dolphins to show just how much the
gap between them and Pats has been closed.
So how can
the Dolphins pull off the upset and send a message that the last two weeks are
for real? Here are three major keys to a Dolphins win:
1)
Pressure QB Tom Brady: To beat the Patriots you have to cut off the head of the
snake. The best way to do that is to generate middle pressure in Brady’s face and
not overly blitz. This job is a big reason why the Dolphins signed DT Ndamukong
Suh. Overall, the center of the Dolphins defensive line is deep and formidable;
this will force the Pats to adjust. This means DE Cam Wake will continue to
have opportunities to disrupt. Brady is very quick at releasing the ball, which
makes it hard to sack him. Nevertheless, the Dolphins have the ability to at
least disrupt his rhythm; the defensive line will be especially critical to achieving
this.
2) Limit
TE Rob Gronkowski: Campbell joked that he may have to assign the entire
secondary to guard Gronkowski, such is the respect the former TE has for his
game. This is where the loss of DE Dion Jordan really hurts the Dolphins,
because he has the freakish athleticism and speed to handle Gronk’s unique
skill set one-on-one. Fortunately for the Dolphins, they have an elite free
safety in Reshad Jones who can get the job done. Jones will be at a
disadvantage size-wise as Gronk is 6-6, but Jones has the athleticism and
technique to make up for that. The presence of shutdown CB Brent Grimes helps
to free up Jones to shadow Gronkowski. Scheme-wise, OLBs Jelani Jenkins and Koa
Misi will need tight communication with Jones when the Pats run the ball. SS
Michael Thomas and Walt Aikens must also be in-sync in order to prevent the
missed opposite side assignments that other teams have suffered from.
3)
Maintain balance on offense: Pats coach Bill Belichick told the assembled media
this week that turnovers and penalties will probably decide this game. I agree.
Campbell also noted that "(Belichick’s) better than anybody at finding
those mismatches, taking away your best players". True enough. That’s why
it seems reasonable to conclude that the Patriots defense will first try to
take away RB Lamar Miller and force the Dolphins offensive line to pass protect
more, which is not their strength. This would create opportunities for the Pats
defense to generate turnovers and drive-killing sacks. The Dolphins cannot
allow this to happen. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor must stick with the run
(25-30 carries would be a good target). QB Ryan Tannehill and C Mike Pouncey
must quickly recognize run blitzes and adjust to defeat them. If the Dolphins
can prosecute the run effectively, they will be able to score points. Belichick
and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will also look to contain WR Jarvis
Landry, both as receiver and as a runner. This will be very hard for the Pats
defense to do with just one defender, so their focus will be on limiting his
Yards After Catch by getting him down on the ground quickly. Playaction and
motion could create a lot of distraction, however, which will give other
receivers like Rishard Matthews and Kenny Stills, as well as TE Jordan Cameron,
plenty of openings to do damage.
If the
Dolphins can get to a combination of runs and pass completions adding up to 50
or more, I believe they will win the game.