Well, the waiting is almost over and the excitement (and rumors) are building to a peak. So far, there are no busts or blown chances, only high expectations, great futures and glory awaiting everyone involved.

In other words, the draft is almost with us.

And the fact that it's almost here means that it's time for my yearly preview of the Dolphins' draft plans, prospects and probabilities. Last year, I did a four part draft preview, but fear not - I don't have that much energy this year.

No, this year I'm going to cover the Dolphins' draft in this one article. And actually, there is a certain logic to that because the Dolphins' draft this year is going to be much less prolific than it has in years past.

To start with, because of the unusual amount of free agent activity the Dolphins have been involved in this year, JJ has only 5 draft picks currently available. Given past history, JJ will probably trade down at some point and pick up an extra pick or two, but this year won't come close to the 14 pick year of 1997.

In fact, it would surprise me to see JJ pick up more than 2 or 3 extra picks this year. You see - he already has 75 players on the roster and there are many more established veterans on the team than at any time in recent history. There just isn't a lot of room for new faces.

But fewer picks doesn't necessarily mean less excitement, especially with the kinds of players that are available this year. And JJ will be looking for playmakers to come in and make an immediate impact on the team.

But before I get into what I think the Dolphins are likely to do and why - it might be worthwhile to review how the Dolphins run their draft.

It's a very complicated process involving months of preparation, planning, scouting and analyzing. Many people are involved and hundreds of college players are analyzed all the way down to their socks.

And when all the preparation is done and draft day comes around, all that information is weighed, digested, re-analyzed, sifted and then...

... JJ picks who he wants.

You can talk all you want about all the careful preparation, all the data, all the interviews and scouting, but when it comes right down to the selection, Jimmy Johnson takes the players he thinks will help his team the most.

So if you want to know who the Dolphins are going to draft, you have to know something about how JJ thinks.

Unfortunately, at draft time, JJ is doing his best to keep everyone guessing. He will deliberately lie to anyone listening around draft time in order to disguise his intentions. The draft is a big game to him and he's one of the master players.

Of course, some of what he says is going to be the truth. He doesn't always lie - that would make it too easy. Sometimes he tells us the truth, just to keep us guessing.

As JJ says - you have to learn to read between the lines.

There is one indication of who JJ will pick that doesn't come from JJ's words, but from his actions and in this case, actions definitely speak louder than words. You see, JJ doesn't like to take players that he hasn't met personally. He considers himself to be a pretty good judge of character and if a player hasn't met JJ, JJ probably won't take him.

Which means that a good place to start figuring out who JJ is considering is to watch who the Dolphins invite to Miami to work out.

You can also check out who the Dolphins coaches talked to at the combine, but that really will yield too much information to be useful because the Dolphins personnel will literally talk to hundreds of players at the combine.

But the Dolphins are only allowed to invite a limited number of college players to Miami to work out personally and that really makes the coaches want to use those invitations wisely.

The other thing that you want to consider is what JJ thinks the team needs. Don't worry about what *you* think the team needs, because it doesn't matter what you think if you really want to know who they'll draft.

Remember - it only matters what JJ thinks.

And this year - well, trying to guess what JJ is thinking is always tough, but if there's one area of the team that is still without a playmaker, it's at running back. The signing of Tony Martin, while not without it's risks, gives the Dolphins the speedy deep wide receiver that was so conspicuously absent last year.

So that really just leaves the running back position.

And there are some clues from JJ that he is looking seriously at running back. First of all, he's been both defending Karim Abdul-Jabbar and praising Tyrone Wheatley lately. However, Karim is clearly not a franchise level running back and Wheatley has never played a down for JJ.

And there are a couple of other clues that JJ is looking strongly at running back. Real clues - not 12th hand rumors from Mel Kiper. JJ invited more running backs (if you'll accept my proposition that Rob Konrad is being considered as a ball carrier) than any other position (except defensive back, which is a little curious) to his workouts.

Of the running backs that JJ actually invited to Miami to work out, Edgerrin James is the one that he wants the most. However, as a sure top 10 pick, James is most likely out of the running as a potential future Dolphin.

I hate to throw a wet blanket on anyone's fantasies, but I don't believe that the Dolphins have the capital to trade up high enough to get James. With only 5 draft picks this year and with their highest pick being at number 24, it's doubtful that the Dolphins could move up even 10 spots, let alone the 15-20 spots it would take to have a reasonable chance of getting Edgerrin James.

To have any real chance of making such a deal, JJ would have to throw in a player or two and that would probably be too much for him to stomach. Forget about it being feasible - Jimmy Johnson will not trade away several picks and a decent player for James (and it would have to be a decent player).

You can blame the San Diego Chargers for starting this mess with their insane deal last year to trade up one spot for Ryan Leaf. Or you can blame Ditka for offering everything this year and a couple of picks next year for a shot at Ricky Williams.

But it doesn't matter who you blame - the unfortunate truth is that the Dolphins don't have enough trade bait that they'd be willing to part with to land Edgerrin James.

I hope I'm wrong, by the way. James could be enough of a player to push the Dolphins over the top. But JJ won't give up the necessary picks and players to get James. In JJ's world, it just isn't done that way.

If, by some bizarre stretch of the imagination, James somehow falls to the 11th or 12th spot, then JJ will probably make a serious push to get him. But there are too many teams who need running back help in the top 12 to think that James will drop that far.

And even if he does, there are a couple of teams who have more to trade than the Dolphins who also want a chance to take James.

Unfortunately, with Edgerrin James out of the picture, there isn't another running back in the draft that is worth a first round pick.

Except maybe....

OK, let's talk about Cecil Collins and get it out of the way, shall we?

Collins is the enigma of the draft. Will he be the next Randy Moss or the next Lawrence Phillips? Everyone agrees that he has (or perhaps, had) amazing talent, but no one can agree if he's worth the risk.

His first 4 games at LSU, he averaged over 8 yards per carry for a lot of carries. But after breaking his leg and then getting booted for fondling women who didn't want to be fondled, he ended up at little McNeese State. While there, he played in 2 games with mediocre results before getting booted out of there for smoking the evil weed.

Clearly, the kid has some control problems. Can he overcome them and become a Pro-Bowl level player, as some have predicted?

Well, of course no one knows. Unfortunately, the best way to predict what someone will do in the future is to look at what they've done in the past. People do change - but more often, they just repeat their past mistakes.

What we do know about Collins is that taking him would be a tremendous risk that JJ might take - if he were convinced that Collins had enough of an upside to justify the risk.

Personally, I don't think that JJ is that convinced. From what I know of JJ and from what I hear from Miami, I think he'd like to take Collins in the second round, but not the first. There just isn't enough evidence that Collins is worth a first round pick, even without all the baggage that comes with him.

So the bottom line is this - no Cecil Collins in the first round. If he's there when the Dolphins pick in the second round, the Dolphins might take him.

And that leaves us with the consensus mock draft pick of the Dolphins in the first round - FB Rob Konrad of Syracuse. Fully half the mock drafts I checked out had Konrad as the Dolphins' pick in the first round, including ESPN's Mel Kiper, Jr. And Konrad probably is a legitimate first round pick.

But there are a couple of things that bother me about Konrad and make me think that JJ will avoid him. First of all, Konrad is injury prone. At least 3 of his college seasons ended in injury and more importantly, he has a reputation for not trying to fight through minor injuries. Secondly, he reportedly has trouble holding on to the ball.

Most of all, though, he's not a JJ-type running back. JJ could draft him as a starting fullback in the Darryl Johnston mold, but taking a blocking fullback in the first round doesn't fit JJ's concept of value.

Of course, he could draft Konrad to have him carry the ball, but JJ hates fumbles almost as much as he hates Jerry Jones and it wouldn't take too many drops for Konrad to be history. If the stories that Konrad is a fumbler are even half-true, Konrad won't be drafted by the Dolphins.

But the ultimate guarantee that Konrad will not be a Dolphin is the fact the Mel Kiper has predicted it.

So that leaves us without a legitimate first-round running back when the Dolphins pick in the first round. What are the other possibilities?

The Dolphins could take a wide receiver, but the only legitimate first round quality wide receiver that the Dolphins have shown serious interest in is Troy Edwards and Edwards failed to show up in Miami when JJ invited him down to work out.

That will not endear him to our favorite coach.

And that's not all - Edwards has been talking openly about playing in Dallas and I don't think that JJ will take a guy like that - even if he wanted to draft a receiver in the first round, which I don't think he does.

So, no wide receivers and no running backs in the first round. Where does that leave us?

The Dolphins did talk to center Damien Woody of Boston College, who is widely regarded as a first round prospect, but given the likely possibility that Woody will be drafted much higher than 24th and the fact that JJ has never drafted an offensive lineman higher than the third round, I think you can count that one out, also.

Still - JJ has less motivation to trade down this year because he doesn't need quantity and he's been defending Tim Ruddy pretty loudly this off-season. I think that the possibility exists that the Dolphins are considering Woody, if he should happen to fall to the number 24 position.

But that's very unlikely.

And all that really leaves us with is the likelihood that JJ will trade down and out of the first round to get a couple of 2nd round picks, perhaps from Carolina. JJ won't be drafting much defense this year, although he'll probably grab a defensive back or two, but that won't be until much later than the first round.

So the Dolphins will probably end up trading out of the first round. Unless....

You see, there's always a wildcard in the deck and this year, the draft game has a major wildcard in it. His name is Cade McNown.

I'll start by saying that JJ has already shown considerable interest in McNown. They invited him to Miami to work out and kept it pretty quiet, only acknowledging that he had been there after the fact. He didn't join the regular group of players that week - he came in before them.

He is also a legitimate first round talent. He comes from UCLA where Troy Aikman (another of JJ's favorites) made his name. He is a proven competitor and natural leader. And he may be available at number 24 when the Dolphins have their first pick.

It's hard to know just what JJ is thinking, but he doesn't need a lot of draft picks this year, so stockpiling them is not a necessity. He came close to taking Jim Druckenmiller 2 years ago and he didn't need a quarterback then any more than he needs one now.

So at the end of the first round, I think that JJ will take McNown at number 24 - if he's available, which is questionable at this point. If McNown is not available and JJ has not been able to trade up for E.James (and I don't think he'll trade up for anyone else), then I believe that the Dolphins will trade down out of the first round to get some extra picks in the second and third rounds.

Unfortunately, with the winds of draft fortune blowing the way that they are and with the shortage of quarterbacks in the league, I think that the most likely scenario is that McNown will be gone and that JJ will trade down out of the first round.

Unfortunately for me, once you get out of the first round, the prognosticating becomes even harder. As I've said before, we often pay too much attention to the first round and not enough to later rounds.

It gets worse when you don't follow college football much, as I don't.

But for the sake of argument, let's assume that JJ trades down out of the first round and picks up a couple of extra second and third round picks. In those rounds, some players you might see JJ take include WR Kevin Johnson of Syracuse, RB Cecil Collins, RB Sedrick Irvin, DE Dimitrius Underwood and S Billy Gustin.

Kevin Johnson is one of the fastest receivers in the draft, having clocked at 4.4 in the 40 yard dash at the combine. The word on him is that he's extremely talented, but a bit raw and needs seasoning - in other words, a JJ-type draftee.

Sedrick Irvin drew a lot more attention a couple of weeks ago than he is drawing now. The latest rumors say that his stock is dropping, perhaps to as late as the 5th round, but the Dolphins still have an interest in him. He's supposed to be pretty big and rugged, but his production in 1998 was not in line with the best backs in the draft.

Dimitrius Underwood sat out 1998 with an injury, but JJ loves defensive linemen and even though this kid has "project" written all over him, his potential is huge - as well as his body at 6'6" and 280 pounds. Plus, he has impressed scouts with his work ethic over the winter getting ready for the draft and recovering from his ankle injury.

Safety Billy Guston is a little known player who has quietly been getting some very good reviews. He has played safety in college, but he's fast enough and has enough coverage skills that he is regarded as possible cornerback material in the NFL. And JJ certainly likes his safeties to be able to cover.

As you can tell, I think that JJ will take some defensive players in the middle rounds this year, even though he has been saying that he's going to take practically all offense.

JJ has been looking at too many defensive backs in his pre-draft workouts to not be thinking of drafting one. As for the defensive end, JJ just can't resist taking at least one defensive lineman this year. He likes them too much.

On the second day of the draft (which is rounds 4 through 7), I think that JJ will look for an offensive guard, possibly a center, another running back - whom I hope will be Joe Montgomery of Ohio State - and perhaps a safety or cornerback. You can never have too many good cornerbacks.

JJ also might pick up an outside linebacker, if he can find one he thinks might be able to challenge Derrick Rodgers for his starting spot. Rodgers didn't have that great a year last year and while he's no slouch, I think that JJ wouldn't mind improving that position.

Again, though, the wildcards on the second day are the quarterbacks. JJ had both Scott Covington of Miami and Ted White of Howard to Miami for workouts. Both players are well rated and JJ could snag one of them in the 3rd (or later) rounds, if he doesn't grab McNown in the first round.

Now, there are a lot of players I haven't mentioned as possible draft choices that JJ had in for visits and some of you will be disappointed that I didn't mention your favorite "dark horse".

But don't be too disappointed - my track record in the later rounds has not been that good. And JJ always manages to take at least one player that I've never heard of.

Two players that come to mind that I haven't mentioned are WR Peerless Price of Tennessee and WR Tai Streets of Michigan. The reason I don't think that JJ is interested in either of these players is that he didn't have Price in for workout and it's just been announced that Streets may have torn his achilles tendon, leaving him out for the year.

Plus, I think that Kevin Johnson sounds much more like the kind of player JJ would draft.

So that's my bold predictions on this year's draft - JJ will take Cade McNown of UCLA if he's available at 24 and if not, JJ will trade down.

But I'm not putting any money on it....

Sometime before noon on Friday 4/16/99, I'll be posting a list of all the college players that JJ had in for workouts or that he is reported to have paid special attention to at the combine. That includes all the players I've mentioned above, plus quite a few others.

Along with their names, I'll include links to their profiles on the respective draft websites. That way, you can check out what the various analysts had to say about them and form your own conclusions.

Whatever happens, I'm sure that this weekend will be another exciting and wild draft weekend, full of surprises, disappointments and general rowdiness at Madison Square Garden. And I'm going to have a lot of fun there....